The Hurricane Gamble

Editor’s Note: Hannah Cheng is another MIT science writing graduate student to accept the Hurricane Sandy Challenge. To read more of Hannah’s work, check out Scope or her blog Unsanctioned Speculation. You can also follow her on Twitter @haychling.

My dad has probably never been to a casino, religious and awkward as he is. All the same, he taught me how to gamble — with my home, my possessions, and possibly my life — because in the eighteen years we lived on the storm-lashed coast of South Carolina, we only evacuated once, and that one time we did, Hurricane Hugo hit the Charleston area right on the nose.

First, you assess the news. You study the reporters, note the wind speed and barometric pressure, listen for either “will” or “may” to precede verbs of destruction. Over time, you listen with one ear and simply eyeball satellite images for storm skirt size and eye formation. Is the storm’s eye glaring at you, well-formed and hateful? Or is it wandering, wall-eyed, blinking and sliding in and out of focus?

Experience colors, the facts, and this is where things can go wrong. Sure, the last hurricane to hit the area took shingles off the roof; that’s no biggie. But how close did it hit? In state, out of state? You don’t remember, so you fudge things.

You list precautions in your head, confident that acknowledging danger is enough to prevent it. You know to keep an eye on rainfall estimates even though you don’t technically live in a flood zone (but let’s face it, if your town is 10 feet above sea level, you’re a pro basketball player’s bunny-hop away from immersion). And the live oak trees in your backyard—they’re old, they lean over the roof. Some wind means branches thunking against the roof; stronger winds can mean the tree itself.

The deciding factor could simply be the availability of escape routes open to you. Question: do you live in the South? Then fact: public transportation sucks, you’re on your own. Question: do you live in a metropolitan city? Follow-up to a yes: do you even know how to leave town?

Very likely, you’re leaving town by car, and that means you need uncongested roads to get anywhere. Is there a mandatory evacuation notice? Have the highways and evacuation routes been updated and expanded since the last population boom? Unsavory possibility: you may just be stuck on the highway when the storm hits.

Once you’ve made the decision to stay, and you’ve hunkered down in your safety zone with friends and booze and rations—you wait. Your justifications circulate in the back of your mind. You wonder. And though you hope you’re right and the worst passes you over, you also feel a bit guilty that someone else somewhere may have bet wrong.

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Counting Calories With Hurricane Sandy

How much of your food will get thrown directly into the trash because of Hurricane Sandy-induced power outages? (Source: Milad Mosapoor, Wikipedia)

Editor’s Note: Aviva Rutkin is the second MIT science writing graduate student to accept the Hurricane Sandy Challenge. To read more of Aviva’s work, check out Scope; you can also follow her on Twitter @realavivahr.

My brother Brad is terrified of mold. Now that the power is out in our house on Long Island, I expect he is vigilantly ransacking our dead fridge at this very moment, eliminating any items in danger of rotting.

Americans already have a bad track record with food waste. A study in August reported that 40 percent of food in this country already goes straight into the trash—a 165 billion dollar habit.

With a natural disaster like Hurricane Sandy on the loose, I suspected that a few extra ingredients would find themselves prematurely trashed.

I decided to do some amateur calculations, looking just at the impact on my home region. As of this morning, Newsday reported that 938,000 Long Island Power Authority customers have lost power.

Some food, like meat and vegetables, can last for up to two days if you are scrupulous about keeping the fridge door closed. However, the outage in Long Island is predicted to stretch for at least one week.

This study from a NYC research group called Esri found that the average refrigerator in NYC and Westchester in 1999 would lose $72 of perishable food during a power outage, regardless of household income. According to the U.S. Inflation Calculator, $72 in 1999 is equivalent to $100.01 today.

So, we have 938,000 homes * 100.01 dollars of perishable food = $93,809,380 lost on Long Island alone.

Of course, there’s a good chance that I’m way off with this one. If anyone has access to more updated or official food loss statistics, please comment below!

In the past, customers have filed for reimbursement or even tried to sue power companies for this kind of loss, but they haven’t been very successul. You’d probably be better off holding an impromptu feast.

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Is Sandy Living Up to the Media Hype?

In the midst of a threatening hazardous event, my least favorite thing is hearing people complain about “the media” (a sweeping term used to cover blogging, television anchors, radio reporters, and print and online journalists) “over-hyping” a disaster.

Following Hurricane Irene last year, there was many a grumbling in Boston about the storm not living up to expectations. “It was a dud,” people whined. While Massachusetts mostly escaped Irene’s wrath, more northern states such as Vermont were inundated by floods and the resulting damage lingered for weeks to months following the then tropical storm.

And I can imagine tomorrow, when I return to school, I will hear similar complaints about Sandy. Well, come Tuesday morning, and you still have power and there are no photo-worthy damage scenes in your neighborhood: don’t complain, be thankful. Because I guarantee you many parts of the East Coast have been hit hard.

Focusing just on Massachusetts for a minute, here are some initial damage statistics, maps, and links:

- As of 10 pm on Monday night, between 94-98% of NSTAR customers have reported power outages in Carlisle, Sherborn, Aquinnah, and Chilmark towns. On the opposite end of the spectrum, 2% of customers in Boston and 4% of Cambridge folks reported power outages. (Source: NSTAR Interactive Outage Map)

- Relatedly, according to the Boston Globe article, more than 385,000 Bay State denizens are without power tonight.  The same article also reported numerous incidents of fallen trees damaging homes, cars, and other forms of property around the state.

- The Cambridge MA government website reported numerous closed or affected streets including “Portsmouth, Ellery, Blanchard, Sherman, Sidney, Russel Field, Bates at Raymond, Highland, Linnaean, Raymond, Howard & Lock” as of 7:30 pm tonight.

- The Newton MA town publication WickedLocal reported that the city of Newton responded to over 400 calls related to Hurricane Sandy and around 500 tree-related complaints. This includes 15 distinct reports of trees that smashed into Newton residential house. There were also three tree-damage induced house fires.

And the list goes on. For additional local MA Sandy coverage, a few sites include WWPL.com, MVTimes.com, and www.newburyport.com.

Beyond Massachusetts, the impact of Hurricane Sandy is more pronounced–and grim. Across New Jersey and New York (especially in Atlantic City and New York City), millions of people are without power and there is widespread flooding. Flooding in the streets. Flooding in subway tunnels. Flooding in parks. Flooding in apartment basements. One of storm’s most dramatic damage scenes occurred on Manhattan’s West 57 Street, where a crane smashed into an apartment building.

Then there is also the sad news of Sandy sinking the HMS Bounty off the coast of North Carolina. 14 passengers were rescued, 2 remain missing.

For a total damage picture, Bloomberg Businessweek is reporting Sandy may cause up to 20 billion in economic damages, and insured loss may reach between 5 to 10 billion. In towns from Maryland to Massachusetts, many businesses, schools, and transportation systems will remain closed Tuesday. And for truly unfortunate souls in western Pennsylvania and New York, the worst of Sandy (for them at least) is yet to come.

So do I think the media play up Sandy? Not at all. From Twitter to the New York Times to NBC, reporters have been following this storm through its development with the diligence needed to keep the general public safe. That being said, some Sandy coverage is certainly better than others, but THAT is for another post.

And in case you still don’t care about Hurricane Sandy, well, I am impressed you made it this far into my post and enjoy the fact that the New York Times, Wall Street Journal, LA Times, and Baltimore Sun (and perhaps there are more out there as well…) have all abandoned their paywall to provide full Hurricane Sandy coverage access to those interested.

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Sandy Doesn’t Slow Runners

Editor’s Note: Trent Knoss is the first MIT science writing graduate student to accept the Boston Project Blog’s Hurricane Sandy challenge. A true reporter (and runner), he braved the stormy Massachusetts weather this morning for a run and wrote about it. To read more of Trent’s work, check out Scope or the PLOS MIT SciWrite blog. You can also follow him on Twitter @TrentKnoss.

With Hurricane Sandy lashing the coast and bringing Boston to a standstill today, most coastal dwellers are laying low and staying dry indoors.  But diehard local runners will not be denied, and I gallantly (or foolishly, depending on your point of view) joined their ranks this morning.  Amidst the cutting rain, I decided to chase down a few of my fellow masochists and get their thoughts.

As I got going, the first thing I noticed was the quiet.  There were almost no cars on the road at what would normally be rush hour.  The construction projects in Area IV (between Kendall Square and Central Square) that rattle me awake at 7 AM every weekday were vacated.  Most shops along Main Street were dark — except for Starbucks, that beacon of consistency in an uncertain world.  It all seemed vaguely pre-apocalyptic, if that’s a term.

Along the river, the wind howled viciously, catching the leaves in the trees like miniature sails.  An older man, bundled up in a tan rain slicker and green galoshes, gave me a friendly wave on my way by.  Another woman called impatiently to her panting black lab to finish up so they could get back inside.  The sparsely populated Red Line rumbled across the bridge in what would end up being one of its final runs of the day (MBTA service was suspended at 2 PM).

I ran alongside a youngish guy in a college track jacket for a few minutes. He declined to be identified for the story, but cited his intense year-round race schedule as the reason why he doesn’t take days off.

“[Bad weather] doesn’t faze me…I hate treadmills more,” he said.

At least one was using his stormy run as preventative medicine for cabin fever.  ”It’ll justify the rest of the day on the couch,” said Doug S. of Somerville.

Running around in now-soaked shorts and starting to feel the chill, I started thinking about the fact that even under non-hurricane conditions, it takes a certain mental attitude to get out the door in bad weather.  Your brain has to overrule its instinct to go back up to your nice warm bed.  You know that it’s going to be cold and uncomfortable, that your shoes will squeak with water and that your clothes will need to be wrung out in the bathtub afterward.  Any one of those factors might be enough to stop most people, but these outliers do it anyway.  They’re determined to exercise, Weather Channel forecasts be damned.  The neuroscience of that instinct would make a fascinating study for an entrepreneurial research team.

All in all, I spent about 45 minutes outside and only a few runners were interested in chatting.  They were engrossed in their runs, as is their wont.  Of the dozen or so that went past, I can’t say that any looked particularly comfortable, but many just shrugged or laughed in a “what are you going to do?” sort of way.

Alison Gray, a Cambridge runner who has competed in all kinds of inclement weather (including last year’s scorching Boston Marathon), raced past me at the foot of the Massachusetts Avenue bridge.  Reached later by email, she said that friends sent her cautionary notes about going out in the hurricane, but that she was “pumped to go out in the elements.”

Asked to describe how she felt after the run, she wrote, “Victorious. Also freezing.”

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Hurricane Sandy, Challenge Accepted

The Storm of the Century. Frankenstorm. Hurricane Sandy. Whatever you are calling this sassy storm system, this late season hurricane is the talk of the eastern seaboard. In preparation for Sandy’s American debut (in fact she is only minutes away from making landfall in New Jersey as I type), numerous Mid-Atlantic and Northeastern states saw sweeping closures today, Monday, October 28, including schools (including mine), businesses, governments, and transportation systems. And many places have already ordered closures for tomorrow too.

In lieu of a “hurricane” day off, and because I am mildly obsessed with tropical cyclones (the general term used to categorize these kind of meteorological systems, which range in intensity from tropical depressions to tropical storms to hurricanes), I challenged my fellow MIT science writing graduate students to report on, or at least reflect upon the storm for this blog. The challenge guidelines were loose: they could take any angle they wanted, from personal essays to a more newsy report, and I would post it. I am also planning on participating in the challenge as well (and this intro post doesn’t count).

So stay tuned (assuming you have power and internet) as the stories come in–and stay dry!

And here is a sweet picture of Sandy taken by NOAA’s GOES-13 satellite this morning around 9 am:

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Our Genes Are Just Part of the Story: Part 2

Dr. Andrea Baccarelli, Professor of Environmental Epigenetics at the Harvard School of Public Health.

This is the second in a two-part post about epigenetics. To learn more about advancements (and controversies) in this field, I talked to Dr. Andrea Baccarelli, Professor of Environmental Epigenetics at the Harvard School of Public Health.

In the last ten years, what has been the biggest advancement in the field of epigenetics?

Technology. Just 5 years ago, we could only measure the epigenetic program of one gene at a time. Today, we can measure it across 15,000 genes at once.

Another interesting advance (and, simultaneously, the area that is most contentious) is the evidence suggesting that higher species, like humans, can pass down acquired epigenetic information to their offspring. If this could be confirmed in humans, it would revolutionize our culture. Indeed, recent studies done with mouse models show that those that are fed a high calorie diet become obese. Their offspring tend to become obese as well, just as an effect of the father’s diet. This indicates that our habits and unhealthy lifestyles don’t affect us alone, but may also change the health of our kids. We could accumulate our own experience in the epigenome and pass it on to our children. This is a cultural shift.

What is the biggest misconception—on the part of the public—about epigenetics? (In other words, what concepts do you most frequently have to clarify?)

Because there is so much excitement about inheritance of epigenetic traits, I think we all tend to be carried away. At the moment, the evidence of epigenetic inheritance in humans is weak, and even a large part of animal experiments could be explained by other non-epigenetic mechanisms.

How far down the family tree can an epigenetic change be passed? For example, from my great-great-great grandmother to me?

Some animal experiments show transmission of acquired epigenetic markings down to fourth generation. Theoretically, epigenetic inheritance could go on indefinitely, though there is evidence from plants that environment-related changes might wane in a few generations. In many other cases, epigenetic changes stop at the second generation, and so are not considered real epigenetic inheritance, but rather a direct effect of maternal exposure (that is, exposure of the fetus—including the sperm and eggs—to the mother’s environment).

Can diet render an epigenetic change?

Animal experiments and some human studies clearly show that the diet can impact the epigenome and cause reprogramming of basic cell functions.

We get many components of the epigenome from the diet. For instance, DNA methylation (one of the most studied indicators that an epigenetic change has occurred) is dependent on methyl groups, which are derived from pathways in body that require an appropriate intake of several dietary components, including folate, vitamin B6, vitamin B12, betaine, and choline, among others. A lack of these dietary components could indeed impact gene expression.

Tell us a bit about your research; I know you are actively looking into the epigenetic effects of air pollution. Are certain genes more sensitive to air pollutants than others?

We found LINE-1, a sequence repeated up to half million times in the human genome, to be extremely sensitive to environmental pollutants. LINE-1 are non-coding DNA; this means their function is still largely unknown (as opposed to genes whose function is known to impact vision or muscle development, for example). It is possible that these sequences might participate in the triggering of inflammation, a universal response to air pollution.

Do epigenetic changes always manifest themselves as negative health outcomes?

Not necessarily. Many of these changes are likely to be adaptive and defend our cells from environmental threats.

by Meagan

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Our Genes Are Just Part of the Story: Part 1

Editor’s note: Nature versus nurture; you’ve heard the expression. It makes the entities it juxtaposes seem like oil and water, distinct—with no chance to mingle. Now, however, we’re beginning to understand that environmental factors—like particles in the air or the food we eat—can actually influence how our genes, our very nature, are expressed. (Even identical twins, born with the exact same genes, can grow up to be different; one might get cancer, the other won’t.) When it comes to understanding our physical traits then, it seems our genes are just part of the story…

Why do these identical twins look different?

Trillions of cells make up your body. Even though each one has the same DNA sequence—or underlying genetic coding—not every cell looks the same. For instance, cells that make up your skin are different than neurons in your brain. One reason for this is that, for a given cell, every gene in it can be expressed at a different level.

For the purposes of this blog, each gene can be thought of as being on a dimmer switch—either turned on full blast, turned off, or set somewhere in between. If you fiddle with the thousands of dimmer switches corresponding to individual genes in each cell and set them to different levels, you get very different cellular environments. (Stem cells are often touted as so promising because they are cells at a stage before any of the switches have been adjusted, so they can become any type of cell.)

Now, scientists are discovering that the dimmer switches are not set on a permanent course; that is, the genetic code with which a person starts life may not be the only factor that dictates how that person develops.

Consider, for a moment, identical twin mice. Note that identical twins have the exact same genes. Both mice have a particular gene that causes obesity, but in the first mouse, it stays on constantly. What accounts for this? Does the first mouse run less on his multi-colored wheel, or does it have a high-fat diet as compared to its twin?

Nope. Instead, it is due to a small chemical “tag” of carbon and hydrogen, called a methyl group, which is stuck onto the obesity-causing gene, causing it to stop working.  Organisms like mice and humans have millions of such tags. Some tags are hitched directly to genes, impeding the genes to function. Other types nestle in the proteins—called histones—that genes coil around genes; these tags can tighten or loosen their hold, impacting gene expression.

Distinctive methylation and histone patterns can be seen in every cell, constituting a sort of second genome, called the epigenome. The epigenome (which, literally translated, means above the genome) is like the dimmer switch overseer that tells the genome how to work. As mentioned above, it also tells our cells what sort of cells they should be—neuron, hair, skin, etc.—so we ultimately have all the cells we need. When we have enough of those cells, at a given period in our life, it silences the genes that produce them.

Research in epigenetics is helping to elucidate just how environmental factors—like tiny particles in the air or the vitamins we get from food—interact with our genetic material to cause differences in our physical traits.  Air pollution and vitamins, for example, release chemical components that can create the “tags” described above. To produce thin mice instead of fat ones, a scientist could feed pregnant mouse moms diets rich in methyl groups to form the tags that can turn the obesity gene off.

Chromosomes are pieces of coiled DNA that contain many genes. Here, we see chromosome 1 in 3-year-old identical twins, left. At age 50, this same chromosome shows differences—differences caused by environmental factors.

Epigenetics is a hot topic now for several reasons. Beyond influencing cell type differences (as described above), it also creates patterns that are heritable, meaning they can be passed from cell to cell. A skin cell will divide into another skin cell, not a neuron cell, because epigenetic mechanisms set the dimmer switches in the new cell to parallel those in the parent cell.

Amazingly, this heritability is also intact from organism to organism. This means it is possible that your mother’s, or even grandmother’s, lifestyle choices played a role in your gene expression today—your eyesight, for example, or your respiratory heath. In the mouse example above, the epigenetic fix (feeding mothers food rich in methyl groups) could be inherited by the next generation of mice (or, the grandchildren), regardless of what their own mothers ate.

So, while you inherit your genome, you can alter your epigenome—and potentially that of your child. This has serious implications for how we live (whether we choose to smoke, for example, or eat a lot of bacon and forgo the vitamins in broccoli).

Epigenetics also has implications for medicine. The presence of the tags on the genome helps scientists discover the cause of diseases not explicable by DNA alone (indeed, changes to the DNA sequence used to be the first place scientists looked to explain diseases).

And unlike genetic mutations (actual changes in your DNA sequence), which have permanent consequences on gene expression, epigenetic changes are reversible—responsive to environmental influences. As a result, drugs could be designed to undo any deleterious effects from an epigenetic change. Say, for example, a tag controlling your genes caused certain cells in your body to become abnormal, triggering cancer. Epigenetic drugs could be made to reverse (or otherwise correct) the effect of the tag, thereby regulating gene expression to healthy levels.  Some such targeted epigenetic therapies are already in place.

Research into the role of epigenetics in our lives, medicine and the pharmaceutical industry seems promising; indeed, aspects of it, like targeted drugs, are almost too good to be true. Check back very soon for an interview with a prominent member of the epigenetics community here in Boston, Dr. Andrea Baccarrelli, professor of Environmental Epigenetics at the Harvard School of Public Health. His answers gave me some perspective and grounded my wishful thinking.

by Meagan

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